Currently, the number of global commercial space launch especially US commercial space launch increased fast. The number of US commercial space launches reached its peak in 2017 with a total amount of 21 times, while the number of US non-commercial space launches declined slightly. European commercial rocket launches also had small increases, while the non-commercial space launch times remained unchanged compared with 2013. Meanwhile, due to the fast growth of US commercial space launch, number of Russian commercial space launch plunged down accompanied with a slight decrease in Russian non-commercial space launch.
Chinese military and civil space launch had small growth as well, but commercial space launches still totaled zero in 2017. Given the fast-growing global commercial space launch market, Chinese commercial space launch is believed to have a large room for future development. In Jan 2018 China launched CZ-11 and completed the first “purely commercial launch” in China. This suggests that CNSA will return to commercial space launch market and becomes an active participant in the market.
According to the carrying capacity of CZ-series rockets published by CALT, Chinese state-owned rocket launches have only 7 chances to carry private satellites until 2020, and tracks and total weight of those additional satellites are limited.
iResearch found that China planned to launch 2505 satellites until now according to the published satellite launching plans. If 10 satellites can be launched per time, then 250 rocket launches will be needed to complete the plan. However, the number of state-owned rocket launches is far less than what is needed. Thus, commercial rocket launch is expected to have a huge potential market in China.